A few years ago, Intel proposed a TIck-Tock pendulum strategy—the CPU architecture and process were upgraded every other year, which means that two years to upgrade the architecture or process for a cycle interval. This strategy has been successful on SNB, IVB, and Haswell processors, but the 14nm process has been delayed due to difficulties, the upgrade cycle has been lengthened, 14nm and the next 10nm have to fight for three generations, but Intel said that these are not a thing. The 7nm node is the key, when they will return to the Moore's Law track, the TIck-Tock strategy will be back on track.
In the previous news, we still said that AMD can finally compete with Intel in the same generation process. The Zen architecture uses Samsung/GF's 14nm FinFET process, and Kaby Lake will use Intel's 14nm FinFET process at the end of the year. But behind this, not AMD's catching up has accelerated, in fact, Intel was forced to slow down the process of evolution.
Not only does the 14nm process have to fight for three generations, but the 10nm process that is expected to be mass-produced in 2017 will also have three generations of processors from Cannonlake, Ice Lake and TIger Lake. As a result, the upgrade cycle of TIck-Tock is not the previous two years, but It took 2 years and a half or even 3 years to upgrade the process.
The slowdown of Intel's new technology has also given TSMC and Samsung the "debt" capital. The process of these two foundries has been behind Intel's half-generation or even a generation, but the 10nm and 7nm nodes have a variety of limelight, of which TSMC said at the end of this year. Will mass production 10nm process, energy production 7nm process in 2018, 5nm process can be launched in 2020, (media) progress is much faster than Intel, can simply bend overtaking.
Considering the quality of these companies, Xiaobian believes that Intel's caution still makes sense. However, in the face of such an arrogance, Intel can not show weakness. The 10nm process is improved on the basis of 14nm, but the process difficulty under 10nm is different. In order to realize 7nm and future 5nm process, researchers are actively researching new materials and new processes, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment should be upgraded. One of the keys is the EUV lithography machine, but ASML's current EUV lithography machine cannot meet the needs of mass production regardless of capacity or reliability.
Intel is ready to defend its honor at the 7nm node. CFO Stacy Smith said at the Morgan Stanley Annual Technical Conference that the 14nm and 10nm processes have been delayed by half a year from the expected progress, but there will be a major breakthrough in the 7nm process. At this point, the Moore's Law upgrade cycle is repeated once every two years.
Smith did not explicitly mention the secret weapons they would have at the 7nm node, but there were news about Intel's various black technologies, including quantum well transistors, indium gallium arsenide and strained new materials.
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