According to IHS iSuppli's China research report, despite the lack of a profitable business model, Chinese TV broadcasters are vigorously developing high-definition services, which will drive China's high - definition set - top box (STB) shipment growth in 2011 by more than 50%. As key markets postpone the transition from analog to digital TV technology, the export of terrestrial digital set-top boxes (Terrestrial STB) will shrink by 31.4% to 23.3 million units in 2011.
In 2011, the shipment volume of HD set-top boxes will increase from 2.1 million in 2010 to 3.2 million, an increase of 51.2%. By 2015, shipments will reach 5.9 million, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.9% from 2010 to 2015. The sales growth trend of high-definition set-top boxes is similar, and it is expected to rise from 163 million US dollars in 2010 to 363 million US dollars in 2015, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.4%.
The picture shows IHS's forecast of China's high-definition set-top box shipments and sales in 2009-2015.
The growth of China's high-definition cable set-top box shipments mainly comes from several large cities such as Beijing and Jinan. However, in order to maintain this growth trend in the coming years, Chinese TV operators must provide more high-definition programs and establish effective business models.
Use Android
The adoption of an operating system is an eye-catching trend in the high-definition cable set-top box market.
Google's Android system is a relatively popular operating system, and semiconductor suppliers have launched new products to support this system. These suppliers include Broadcom and STMicroelectronics, as well as local Chinese manufacturer HiSilicon. Hisilicon is rapidly expanding its coverage of the cable high-definition set-top box market, and plans to begin offering better services this year.
Other set-top box market outlook
Another strong growth opportunity for the Chinese set-top box market is the China Advanced Satellite Broadcasting System (ABS-S) system, which is planned to be put into operation by the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television in October. Manufacturers will provide set-top boxes and other receiving equipment, while local TV operators will control conditional access cards. Consumers need this card to get services.
In China's satellite set-top box market, shipments are expected to grow to 61.4 million in 2011. Data from the first half of the year is expected to show that Kyushu is in a leading position in the export market, despite the company's declining performance. Overall, the lower entry threshold and meager profits will continue to keep the satellite set-top box industry dispersed in the next few years.
The State Administration of Radio, Film and Television plans to sell 60 million ABS-S set-top boxes in the next two years, but this goal may be difficult because the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television will not adopt the government procurement model. Therefore, set-top box manufacturers must develop this market by themselves and rely on the government to provide subsidies to some users. IHS iSuppli estimates that Chinese manufacturers will ship 7-8 million ABS-S set-top boxes in the second half of 2011.
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