On June 20th, foreign technology media Venturebeat wrote an analysis of the current situation of weak search innovation, and pointed out that the future search technology will make the content more authoritative, accurate, and have more diverse forms. The knowledge map will provide a significant driving force for new searches. As the leading company in the search industry, Google has many advantages, but also is committed to the development of knowledge maps, conversational applications and other innovative measures, but in the "innovator's dilemma", in addition to it will face Apple, Facebook and Amazon search areas A strong competitor. The article said that in the game of the future search market, no matter which side wins, it will build the world's largest database.
The following is the full text:
Technology has undergone tremendous innovation over the past two decades (eg, smartphones, cloud computing, and social networking), but the search interface and the support technologies behind it are still stagnant. The interface we use today is roughly similar to the early ones: a blank input box where the user enters query keywords, the query results with a blue font and an underscore, and when clicked, they are redirected to other links.
We see search as a "state of the art" product - an index that provides answers to everything.
Why can't search solve meaningful real problems?
Despite years of active investment in the industry, search technology is still unable to solve some of the world's meaningful real problems. This is mainly due to:
Lack of authority
When the Internet is just emerging, it is computer or online experts who edit and share content. Many answers to many questions can be found on the web, and we rely on them. But now everyone can write and share content on the web, and the web is full of spam and phishing traps. The authority of the content is difficult to guarantee. While we are getting information, we are also questioning the reliability of the source of information. In the end, we are not sure whether an answer is right or wrong. Google has made some progress in combating spam, but the cold war between spammers and search companies is bound to continue until some sort of normative change occurs.
Higher expectations
People are increasingly demanding data, and hope to obtain deeper data and facts through inquiry. People ask more complex questions than ever before. For example, in the past, people only wanted to find the best ski resort through search. Now, they want to know which ski resorts best meet their requirements for height differences, ski area and total snowfall. They want more accurate questions and more precise answers.
Mobile side puts higher demandsThe voice interface is favored by more and more people. A traditional search experience that provides a bunch of blue links to various articles and advertisements is not of interest in the mobile world.
With the advent of the information age, people are becoming more and more aware of digitalization, and the expectations of search technology to answer complex questions are getting higher and higher, especially when they are busy. They can't tolerate slow-paced experiences, search tools that are interrupted by ads, or unable to answer questions.
Prospects for future search
Authority: The degree of editing, supervision, and organization of content will increase, which will contribute to the authority.
Accurate: Future search technologies will be able to accurately understand user inquiries and accurately deliver the content users need in an understandable form.
Adaptability: Today's society consumes different types of media content, in addition to text, as well as data, video and visualizations. Future search will provide users with content in a timely manner in a suitable form.
We have created a world where information is free and anyone who has doubts can access it at any time. In addition, advertising and earning personal reputation can help people share their intelligence on the web. However, the information presents a fragmented state and no process of production is required. Various online communities have many people who are willing to pay their "professional knowledge", but these people are not always credible.
In addition, there is currently a model for publishing small changes to various sources on countless small websites. This model is not sustainable and does not help people solve unique and complex problems. The experience brought by this model has limitations and is nothing new. In order to create a new generation of search ecology, in addition to editing other people's content, we still have a lot to do.
Knowledge map will drive new searchGoogle Maps is a good example of what the future search will look like - enhanced public data driven by knowledge maps. Google has thousands of employees who are constantly correcting mistakes, machine learning AIs that resolve addresses, street-view cars that drive on the streets to collect ground data, and satellites that take pictures all the time. With the support of these infrastructures, Google is able to present all aspects of the world in real time and answer questions about geospatial issues, even if they have never been mentioned before.
In the future, humans will continue to ask more complex issues, and future search technologies will need to adopt a similar construction model for each knowledge category. If a certain level of complex patterns or infrastructure is not integrated into the knowledge building process, it is impossible to achieve an efficient search experience. And this complexity needs to be applied in all future data areas. Google has begun to achieve more structured results in search products, but still lacks a lot of information. Since the search is based on crawling other people's content, where will the above data come from? Can Google change its model and become a content creator?
Google is actively investing in the knowledge map. In addition, Microsoft, IBM Watson, Apple, Yahoo and many other companies are working on developing their own knowledge maps. The knowledge map allows people to ask questions in a precise way and get answers immediately, even if no one has ever asked this question. Future searches must cover a wide enough range to ensure accurate information and provide immediate results.
Google's dilemmaAlthough Google is clearly a strong leader in the search space, it has to face one of the biggest challenges that all successful technology companies have to overcome – the plight of innovators. Google is evolving in the world of desktop computers, enabling people to embrace search engines that simultaneously present content and advertising. But today's world is not a world dominated by desktop computers. When 90% of revenue comes from advertising, how does a company have a swing space? What should I do when mobile ads are not as profitable as expected? How do advertisers display ads on Apple Watch? There is no clear answer to the question of how voice assistants such as Siri generate revenue from advertising. What should I do now?
At the time of the mode change, the leading companies in the industry may be self-protected and weak, thus opening up the window of opportunity for new players. The rise of the mobile space has put a lot of pressure on search companies, and people will soon put more pressure on the trend of accepting conversational tools such as voice and communication. In many ways, Google has the most favorable conditions to lead the world. It has an edge in both data and expertise. This is what makes Google fall into the trap of innovators. If its innovations interfere with existing markets, it will have the greatest adverse impact on its own earnings. But if other companies with less qualifications than Google's companies promote innovation, Google will reduce innovation, which will reduce the incentives for the existing market, but Google's own income sources will be more durable.
Strong competitorWho is a strong competitor in the search field?
Apple CEO Tim Cook announced at the WWDC conference that Siri will be open to developers. But he did not stop there. Apple has been investing heavily in conversational interfaces and has created a whole new ecosystem, including the opening of iMessage to developers. Several killer apps are expected to share the market share of sports scores/statistics, news, restaurant reviews, etc. from search engines. Is Apple's new API strong enough to create the right opportunity? How do iPhone users quickly accept this new model?
Facebook did not impress the industry when it launched Smart Assistant M. But CEO Mark Zuckerberg is rapidly developing Facebook's AI ecosystem. Messenger and WhatsApp are the world's largest instant messaging platforms. Smartphone users spend a lot of time on Facebook-owned Messenger and WhatsApp, perhaps more time than some native iOS apps like iMessenger. The transition from a single application to a conversational application has made Facebook more prevalent than Apple.
Amazon is an interesting contender. Its revenue comes from the retail business, so in theory, as long as there is an order, it can provide a free response 24 hours a day. Google, on the other hand, relies on advertising for 90% of its revenue. Alexa, the voice assistant released by Amazon, did not destroy its own business model, but improved it. By getting people used to talking to Alexa, they will also become more and more accustomed to dealing with Amazon. What will happen to this? Buy more items from Amazon. They are less concerned with advertising, and the main concern is to buy goods. Which company will make this prospect a reality? Google has done a good job in the field of maps, but it faces difficulties in disrupting its existing model through ordinary search business. Bing has done some interesting attempts in structured search, but compared to Google, there is no change. Siri tried it early, but Apple's further investment in it has been delayed for several years. Facebook has taken some good steps, but we haven't seen any real results yet. A game to occupy the future search market has begun, and the situation of multi-party competition is about to start.
One thing is certain: no matter which side wins, it will build the world's largest database.
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