In the past 2018, Google’s heart must be full of anxiety.
At first, it was the CES at the beginning of the month. It did not participate in a low-key manner, and the competitor Baidu was eager to “listen to the doorâ€. Then, CES just ended. On January 12, GM announced that it would mass production without a steering wheel in 2019. A fully automatic driverless car with pedals; and then, on January 24th, Uber announced very high-profile that "the autonomous car will be on the road within 18 months." .
It should be said that Baidu and Uber's high-profile demonstrations, as early as Google's expectations, will not be shocked. What really makes Google sit back and rest is that GM wants to "kill Google with Google"!
The "killing the steering wheel" scheme was first proposed by Google. It was only because of legal restrictions that it could not be done for the time being. In the early November of 2017, Google just announced the trial operation of the L4 driverless car in Phoenix, Arizona. This time, although the driver was removed from the driver's seat, the vehicle still retains the steering wheel. .
How can Google think that he is only a little "obedient" a bit, and was actually given by the GM this kid! "Canceling the steering wheel and pedals" actually belongs to the L5. That is to say, Google is only slightly cautious. The first announcement of the L5 mass production plan was taken away by GM. It’s really alive and dead.
"I don't want to be angry. Are you still a sick cat?" Google obviously didn't want to sit still, so it adopted the strategy of "You are faster, I am faster than you." On January 30th, Google and Chrysler reached an in-depth cooperation and decided to reproduce "thousands of" self-driving cars and complete the first delivery by the end of 2018!
Neither side has clearly disclosed whether the so-called "thousands" are thousands, but according to conventional calculations, it should be at least 3,000 vehicles (for the sake of simplicity, this article will not be used to determine the "thousands of vehicles" later. "3000 cars"), the price of each car is 40,000 US dollars, the total amount of these orders will be more than 120 million US dollars.
In November last year, Google put in a trial operation vehicle of 500 vehicles. In less than three months, it has increased several times. According to this speed, once the trial operation of these 3000 vehicles (batch delivery) is OK, it will be very fast. Increased to "tens of thousands of vehicles" and "tens of thousands of vehicles"! When GM started mass production (if it was in the second half of 2019 or at the end of the year), Google's self-driving cars were already running around the street!
Although Google has not officially adopted the "production of L4" at the end of the year, Waymo spokesperson Johnny Luu has a saying that "our technology is OK, and it is ready for mass production." This means that this time "thousands of vehicles" is the sign of Google's L4-class self-driving car entering the mass production stage!
Because it is about to enter the mass production stage, therefore, this time 3,000 vehicles, not Google to purchase "standard products" from Fiat, and then take back their own modifications, the sensor and the automatic driving computing platform to install (this modified car, not only the appearance Ugly, and the performance is not reliable enough; instead, the engineers and engineers from both sides cooperated to design and produce, and the autopilot system has been integrated before leaving the factory!
In addition, like Toyota and Ford, Google’s 3,000 self-driving cars are hybrids, which will help them overcome the problem of battery life shortages, thereby reducing the revenue loss caused by charging and frequent battery replacement. .
Currently, 600 cars being tested in Phoenix, Arizona are providing free services to passengers, but Waymo CEO John Krafcik said at the start of the event in November 2017 that he "hopes to start charging at some point in the future." ".
It’s been “good enough†for free for a year. Therefore, we can predict that the “3000†and “120 million US dollars†at the end of 2018 may mean that the era of charging for Google’s autopilot operation is coming.
When it comes to fees, it's important to note that Chrysler offers an 8-seater for Google, with seven seats in addition to the driver's seat. 7 seats, in the early days to provide commuting services for their own staff, it is quite appropriate, but in the commercialization stage, when the taxi is used, it is too luxurious; when the bus is used, it is too small. The only viable option is to provide an "on-demand carpooling" service.
If nothing else, Google's carpooling service will be provided through Lyft or its own self-driving taxi platform.
Google's existing Pacifica has been tested in 25 cities across the United States (mostly in California), now mainly in Atlanta, Los Angeles, Detroit, Phoenix, Kirkland, Washington, as for the 3,000 vehicles that were concentrated in one city, or Divided into multiple cities, we have not seen public plans yet.
Google is the first to deploy the commercialization of autonomous driving. In addition to quickly establishing data advantages and brand advantages, and thus achieving the “leader-leading†situation through network effects, there is also a benefit: its employees can transform from technology to business results. The sense of value is found in the process, so the employee turnover rate will decrease.
However, in addition to technology maturity and law, Google itself faces a big challenge in its own operations: operations are “dirty and livelyâ€, and in the field of operations, “doctoral students do not work as specialists†Rarely, Waymo, as a team of tech genes, has enough power to do this "dirty work"?
A little supplement:
It should also be noted that the news that Google wants to build "thousands of" self-driving cars was first released by Fiat Chrysler. This also reflects the subtle mentality of some traditional car manufacturers in cooperation with technology giants - they belong to the party of Gao Pan, there is a more "can not wait" mood when promoting this kind of good news.
Another example is that at the end of 2015, when Ford was in contact with Google, he was in the same mood as the Hanmen woman suddenly found that he had the opportunity to marry into the giants, and he was unwilling to release the "marriage message" in an attempt to pull up. The stock price - the signing has not yet been carried out, Ford unilaterally released the "signed contract" news, and sure enough, Ford's share price has also risen.
However, this behavior annoyed Google, and the cooperation between the two sides also fell through. Ford CEO Mark Fields was forced to step down because of the cooperation.
If you mess up a cooperation, let the CEO step down, it is obvious how much Ford wants to hug Google's thighs; how painful it is to fail to do so!
Looking back at Chrysler's cooperation with Google, it is true that this "thousands of orders" did not have a significant impact on the price of the company, but this is mainly because the order volume is too small and "as early as expected, no Suspense "; but in the long run, those traditional car companies that do not have the ability to develop their own autonomous driving, if they hold the thigh of the technology company early, are still "things that are conducive to the future."
Let's make a hypothesis: a few decades later, Google became a superpower in the autonomous driving industry, just like Apple in previous years. At that time, many traditional car manufacturers may have been eliminated in the shuffle war because they have not successfully transformed themselves into self-driving through self-research or acquisition, and are not willing to do OEM work for technology companies, while Fiat Chrysler is very early. Invested in the embrace of Google, accidentally became "Foxconn in the automotive industry."
At that time, the traditional car manufacturers who had already lost their way would sigh: "Hold your thighs, be early!" What a painful understanding. (Just a hypothesis, if you are offended, you can also look at Haihan.)
Su Qingtao
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