Tesla, if you don’t want to belong to the public, then it’s better to belong to the minority.
Just as Jia Yueting expected Sun Hongbin and Xu Jiayin, the exhausted Elon Musk had also been waiting for the arrival of the Savior.
"I am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured." The August 7th Twitter involved Tesla. And even a new round of disturbance in the entire automotive industry.
"Funding secured", this is the source of confidence that gave Musk the impulse to call out the slogan of "privatization", but it is precisely the shadowy figure of the potential funder that made him and Tesla suffer double the "eye fire". From Tesla’s delisting, the Securities Regulatory Commission’s investigation of fraud, the possible replacement of the CEO, and even the gossip about Musk’s infection of marijuana, all sorts of chaotic disturbances have caused the "Tesla storm" not only to be popular and eyeballs, but also There is also a chicken feather.
What is ridiculous is that many incidents will only gradually come to an end in the long history of history, the outline of the truth will gradually become clear. When the privatization process was finally abandoned by Tesla, it was when the key information gradually came out. We knew that potential investors included Saudi sovereign funds and Silver Lake, but there was a first surprise. , The second sight of emotion-Volkswagen.
Tesla has appeared in front of the world as a disruptor of the traditional auto industry. Even though Musk does not lead the public as an ideal funder, is it his paradoxical fate to return to the wings of traditional auto companies?
Volkswagen X TeslaIn fact, whether it is the focus of the industry and Tesla fans on "privatization", or the focus of a group of "evil forces" such as the SEC in investigating the "Musk fraud case", they all focus on one of the most critical issues- Where does the money come from?
According to the stock price of $420, Tesla's market value will swell to $82 billion. At present, Musk holds slightly more than 20% of Tesla's equity, and the total amount of delisting transactions may reach 72 billion US dollars, which will break the US$45 billion Go private record set by Energy Future Holdings. Perhaps the lace connection between "420 USD" and International Marijuana Day on April 20 would steal the eye, but the most eye-catching one at the time was definitely the "72 billion USD".
Who can provide such a huge amount of funds? Even if it's just a considerable part of it? This question is being asked by the auto industry, Musk’s old rival Wall Street and the SEC are also asking, and the SEC even launched an investigation on the grounds of Musk’s fraud.
Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund PIF (Public Investment Fund) is the first name given by Musk. He said that after the July 31 meeting, a deal with Saudi Arabia’s sovereign fund is already in his hands.
The richness of "oil tyrants" is well known in the world, and it seems more reasonable. However, since then, holding $230 billion in PIF, apart from buying about 5% of Tesla's shares through the public stock market, there is no further supportive move. Moreover, the connection between PIF and Softbank and the investment between Softbank and Tesla's rival General Motors Cruise mean that this pillar may not be able to prop up Musk's ideal sky.
In addition, it is also said that Chinese capital may become Musk's hope. At least the 5 billion yuan required by Tesla's factory in China will be realized by local financing. It's just that "Chinese power supports Tesla's delisting", so far there have been no more real hammers.
Who is more likely to take over than PIF? Finally, after Tesla announced "abandon privatization", an insider gave a name: Volkswagen.
According to this person, it is not easy for Musk to "buy out" Tesla from the stock exchange market. If a deal is reached, some technology mutual funds will be forced to reduce their share of Tesla, perhaps some Competitors will also take advantage of the situation-one of them is Volkswagen. In the PPT that the bankers showed to Musk, a roster of wealthy potential investors was listed. The names of companies such as Volkswagen and Silver Lake Capital appeared in the PPT. These future financial owners promised to provide up to 30 billion US dollars. Funds account for more than 40% of the total demand of 72 billion US dollars.
In terms of the interest of the acquirer, Volkswagen is an "offensive player" who has a strong interest in many external brands, as can be seen from its decades of expansion history of building 12 vehicle brands. The "Godfather of Volkswagen" Piëch repeatedly expressed interest in the acquisition of Alfa Romeo, and even led Marchionne, then CEO of Fiat, to announce that he would "duel" with Volkswagen executives at the Paris Motor Show. Tesla's leading position in the field of electric vehicles and the development path of its innovative model are all scarce and yearning for the public.
In terms of financial resources, Volkswagen Group is currently one of the richest owners in the automotive industry. In the first half of 2018, Volkswagen Group's revenue increased by 3.5% year-on-year to 119.4 billion euros. Operating profit before special items increased by 10.1% year-on-year to 9.8 billion euros. The full-year profit is expected to hit 20 billion euros, which is enough to compete with Toyota. The only car company that compares the amount of profit; as of June 30, 2018, Volkswagen Group's cash and cash equivalents totaled 21.2 billion euros (approximately RMB 168.6 billion at the latest exchange rate).
In contrast, Tesla, according to its financial report for the first half of the year, by the end of the second quarter of 2018, the company held a total of US$2.78 billion in cash and cash equivalents (approximately RMB 18.9 billion at the latest exchange rate).
It can be said that Tesla's ability to "self-rescue" is far inferior to the effect of "signing in" from the public. However, Musk does not like traditional car companies to become their own financial owners. In his view, traditional companies such as Volkswagen are by no means ideal investors, because the enthusiasm of these companies for Tesla comes from the "Tesla Aura." Moreover, the entry of big money owners will lead to the elimination of countless small investors, and those technology mutual funds are precisely standing in the sequence of Tesla's most staunch supporters.
Fortunately, the financial advisers did not coax Musk in order to facilitate the transaction. They warned him that if he wants to get a huge amount of money from the funder, it will inevitably come at the cost of giving up a larger voice.
Musk finally gave up the privatization of Tesla, but we believe that it is not just the pressure from Wall Street and the SEC that has crushed this idea, and the downward trend of public opinion, and the most critical factor is still hard to find. .
Return, final fate?Since Tesla was born, scandals with traditional car companies have once become popular stories. Toyota and Daimler both held shares in Tesla. General Motors set up a research team to focus on Tesla. After that, rumors that "General Motors and Apple may acquire Tesla" were exposed.
Only after the "Tesla Storm" swept the world in 2013, Tesla slowly changed from a "potential vassal" to a "possible disruptor." Especially when the market value of Tesla surpassed that of Ford and GM in 2017, the peak stock price of $389 and the market value of $69 billion are no less than Fan Ye’s phrase "I am a rich man!", just to no longer be regarded as A vassal vase.
Created Tesla, Space X, Paypal, and Hyperloop, and can interactively use Space X rockets to send Tesla sports cars to space. This man has been used by countless people with a lot of shocking actions and eye-catching horror. Fans firmly believe that dreams beyond the boundaries of mortal brains can be realized. After the death of Jobs, Silicon Valley in the United States really needed another "god" who could stand up and serve as the idol of the nation's technology, and Musk is moving along this road to the gods.
"Things go against one's wishes" are the four most hated words in all fairy tales. It means that the gap between ideal and reality is like two hills, which seem to be at your fingertips, but in reality they are thousands of miles away. Since the Model 3's production bottleneck and quality problems broke out, Musk's road of "creating gods" has gradually reversed the direction of the road to "punishing gods".
According to the original expectation, Tesla should achieve a production capacity of 500,000 vehicles in 2018, and sales of 500,000 vehicles before 2020; according to the weekly production target of Model 3, it was originally planned to achieve 5,000 vehicles per week in early 2018, but because of battery modules The production line capacity problem caused two consecutive bounces and delays. November 2017 was changed to 5,000 vehicles per week at the end of the first quarter of 2018; in January 2018, it was postponed to the end of the second quarter, and at the end of the first quarter, it was revised to achieve 2,500 vehicles per week.
Indeed, through the "tent production line" and the "end-of-season offensive tactics", Musk has successively achieved the goal of producing 5,000 vehicles per week and selling 10,000 vehicles per month. However, various problems of Model 3 followed. . For example, Tesla reduced the braking and roll testing procedures in the production process of this entry-level car; the weak part of the solder joints was reduced by 300, accounting for about 6% of the total number of solder joints; "offensive" production cannot guarantee consistent quality ......All these bring hidden dangers to the future use of Model 3. The imbalance between output and orders for high and low models is another "bomb."
Some organizations have calculated and estimated that Tesla will lose 6,000 US dollars every time it sells a Model 3, that is, the profit of the bicycle is equal to minus 40,000 yuan. If you look back at the bicycle profits of Model S sedan and Model X, it is not difficult to find that even though the latter sells more bicycles, the profit is less than half of the former. Tesla, why is it that the more highly anticipated models are, the more profitable the bicycles will decline?
In addition to the obstacles in the initial stage, the experience and thinking in traditional manufacturing is the number one obstacle to Tesla's "stability". And this also implies that the wings of traditional car companies are likely to be Tesla's final destination.
Among Tesla's most essential labels, "innovative car companies" and "Internet thinking" are the most ingrained. It is grafted on the Internet thinking, breaking the shackles of the slow and asset-heavy development of traditional car companies, and it has risen rapidly at the unparalleled development speed of Volkswagen, Toyota and GM, focusing on consumers' higher-dimensional experience beyond traditional cars. Therefore, although the quality of craftsmanship is far less than that of luxury brands such as BBA, Model S can sell at a price similar to the low-profile version of the BMW 7 Series and multiple times the sales volume. After all, "Other people's car machines install computers for vehicles, and Tesla is a large computer that can run."
After all, the automobile is a branch of industrial manufacturing. The more Tesla plays in the niche area, the more it can rely on its innovative model to be invincible to its own three-acre land. But when Tesla intends to march towards the scale of annual sales of hundreds of thousands or even millions of vehicles, the massive production of large industrial manufactured products will become Musk's most severe test.
Conversely, if the scale cannot be expanded geometrically, then it will go against the development route of Internet thinking-in Internet thinking, a company can continue to lose money, but it has to expand its market share, such as Amazon and other reports, no matter how ugly, there will be growth. Can get investment and support. The reason why Tesla's stock price and market value have burst is inseparable from the market's optimism about its growth expectations.
In February 2014, when Tesla’s stock price was still in the range of US$214-250, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas predicted that it would climb to US$320. The reason was that lower battery prices could help Tesla occupy 1% of the global auto market. The annual sales volume exceeds 800,000 vehicles. After Model 3 raised this expected value to 500,000 in the short-term and millions in the long-term, Tesla's stock price once approached $400, and in Musk's expectations, it was as high as $420.
If you compare the "tens of millions of vehicles" encountered by Toyota General Volkswagen, how confident is Musk that he can surpass these predecessors in terms of overall deployment control, quality control, channel development, and product lineup expansion? The difficulty of millions of electric vehicles is no less than tens of millions of fuel vehicles. To deal with a Tesla with an annual sales of 100,000 vehicles, perhaps a Musk can deal with it freely, but if it is to increase by an order of magnitude, its ability has begun to be stretched, and it is difficult to find another 9 Musk to share the worries.
The complexity of Tesla's future is not easy to define with pure "yin and sunny"-it has subverted many outdated concepts in the industry, but its final footing may deviate from Musk's expectations.
Some industry predecessors predicted earlier that Tesla will eventually go bankrupt within a few years, or it will be acquired by Toyota and other auto companies. At that time, I expressed a "partial" rebuttal-the controversy lies in the time node. In my opinion, Tesla can support longer than the predecessors expected, but in the end, the fate is basically in the two directions, especially It's the latter.
Tesla, if you don’t want to belong to the public, then it’s better to belong to the minority.
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